Friday, November 07, 2025

Long-range economics from a non-economist

October 12, 2017, mBTC price

I feel bad. I’ve been begging friends and family to get precious metals for many years, and to get Bitcoin for the past few years. Most of them have ignored me. Or even laughed at me.

One did finally get some silver and a very small amount of gold about 10 years ago, and a few dollars of Bitcoin about 5 years later. He’s glad he did. The rest are oblivious to what they missed. They still dismiss my suggestions, thinking US fiat dollars are the only money that counts.

They may even feel smart when they hear that Bitcoin is "collapsing". Again. As it regularly does before (and after) hitting new all-time highs. Like is happening now. The reality is that Bitcoin is on sale for a limited time.

The US dollar will eventually collapse, too, and when it does, it won't rebound. It will be worth nothing (some would argue it's already most of the way there). I don't know if it will happen in your lifetime, but it's guaranteed to happen. If it does happen in your lifetime, are you ready? Do you have contingency plans?

I don't have nearly enough of either metals or crypto; I'm not even convinced "enough" is a thing- but at least I understand the importance of having some.

The US dollar's long-term trend is only downward, seeking its intrinsic value of zero. This is the path it has been on since 1913, and it shows no signs of stopping its downhill slide.

I think, with Bitcoin, that the long-term direction will be forever upward. Yeah, there will be bumps and dips, but over the course of decades, if you have even one Bitcoin, you'll be set. Maybe I'm wrong and it has hit its peak, or quantum computing will destroy it, and it will be worthless in 5 years, But I doubt it.  If only I'd trusted it more in the beginning... but let's not think about that! 

Also, food for thought, if the price of Bitcoin increases as much in the next 8 years as it did in the 8 years since the screenshot above was captured, it will be worth somewhere around $1.7 million. Each.

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1 comment:

  1. Back when I started working at the hospital in 2002, I used to listen to a radio program on my way home that discussed (among other things) the price of gold. At that time, as I recall, the gold price was around $200/ounce. Today it is over $4000/ounce. I really wish I had been in a position to buy gold back then!

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