Making one more coronavirus prediction

(My Eastern New Mexico News column for April 15, 2020)

I'm going out on a limb to make another coronavirus prediction. You can decide for yourself, with hindsight, how my previous predictions have held up-- and hindsight will get clearer as more time passes.

My newest prediction is that the coronavirus panic has peaked and is already on its way down. This doesn't mean I believe the pandemic itself has peaked, only that society has passed its peak reaction to the pandemic.

I see people starting to behave more normally again. I've seen this in those around me over the past several days. They are getting sick of the drama, especially as the most dire warnings of the officials fail to play out.

People can only stay worked up to a high level of concern for a certain amount of time before their attention starts to wander. People will get used to anything. Constant panic is tiresome.

People have become more skeptical of pandemic lock-down theater and are starting to lose patience with their partial quarantines and financial sacrifices. It's happening regardless of official permission. They're ignoring the fear-mongers a little more with each passing day. This is a problem for those who want to keep everyone scared for a long time.

This means the virus may spread faster for a while, but until enough of us have been exposed and formed antibodies, it's not going to stop being a threat.

My prediction -- based on my observations-- has nothing to do with whether I believe it's a good idea or not; it's just how these things go. It's human nature.

The power-hungry fear-mongers aren't going to like this development.

This might mean you'll see more scary doomsday reports presented in an attempt to keep you focused on the things the political people-- including most of the national broadcast media-- want you to focus on. They are desperate for your attention and your fear.

You can choose whether to give them what they crave.

There's risk in going back to your normal routine too soon. A large part of the risk comes from those who imagine they have the authority to force you to comply with their demands. There's also a risk in not letting the economy get back to business soon enough. Since every path holds risk you should be careful, but you are the only one with the right to decide for yourself how much risk you're willing to take. Never forget it.

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